I am changing some of what I said in the previous posts. I am now very concerned about CoVid19. Things have gotten far worse than I expected just 2 weeks ago. I thought it might last several weeks and then those people who would catch it would catch it and hospitals would take care of most of them. OOPS! Serious pandemic experts say that it won’t end in a few weeks with a few thousands deaths but maybe late Summer with 100,000-240,000 deaths in the US. THAT is scary.
Worse, the experts specifically said that if you think you are immune because you don’t catch the flu or other viral illnesses, you are wrong because no one is immune because it is new. That is REALLY SCARY! I was kind of depending on having a genetic resistance to viruses in general (through experience). I still suspect they might be “somewhat” over-stating it. I know from reading some medical articles in the past that descendants of people who survived the Bubonic Plague in Europe have a general genetic resistance to viral illnesses. Or maybe they were wrong then and know better now and I am just as vulnerable to this new one as anyone else. That is REALLY REALLY SCARY, and I have adjusted my habits accordingly. Not that I was wiling to tempt fate all that much before today, but I am being more careful now.
So I looked around the house to see what I had. I found a large bottle of 91% isopropyl alcohol which I will use carefully (because good luck finding any of THAT at Walmart). I found a bottle of hand-sanitizer left over from when Dad was here. And Wonder Of Wonders, I found that the box of 19 “dust masks” (it was 20, I used one) I bought a few years ago to help avoiding inhaling sawdust when I cut boards in the basement were N-95 respirators! They must have been on sale at the time or I was thinking “why not the best"…
I haven’t left the yard for 10 days, but I need fresh veggies and fruit. One mask every 7-10 days grocery-shopping will me last 4-6 months. Or maybe longer. The medical folks say that the virus doesn’t survive more than 9 days under perfect conditions, so if I set 1 aside, it can be re-used in 2 weeks safely. And I have 2 boxes of 100 latex gloves (one stays in the house and the other stays in the car) to handle them carefully to hang them in the garage (where I seldom go since I’m not driving anywhere these days).
So I’m going grocery shopping tomorrow. The Safeway stores have “senior shopping" from 7am to 9 am Tues and Thurs. I won’t be there then. First, who is most likely to be contagious? Second, who is least likely to be careful with sani-wipes and masks? Third, I’ll go right after lunchtime when the store is least busy. And I’ll go with a handkerchief dampened with the 91% alcohol packed in a ziplock bag, 2 latex gloves, and a dishtowel to wrap around the cart handles (in case they are out of the sani-wipes they promise will be at the front door but weren’t the last time I shopped).
I picked a rotten time for my indoor-grown lettuces to be used up. I grow several kinds in trays under daylight bulbs and when you cut them an inch or so from the base, they re-graow several times. I just used up the “several times" and had to replant. At least they grow fast. In 6 weeks, I can start harvesting again. And that matters because leaf lettuce doesn’t last long in the fridge and I LOVE my salads! Running out of lettuce gets me going to the grocery store faster than anything else. I have some crops planted outside. Spinach, radishes, carrots, beets, snow pear so far. And broccoli and related crops, leeks, celery, garlic, to transplant out soon. Tomatoes and peppers to follow in 3 weeks. But those take time to mature. If I have to depend on harvesting tomatoes for food in dire straits, we are ALL in SERIOUS trouble.
MD, VA, DC, and several other States here have declared lock-downs the past few days. The govts are all working out which businesses have to close and which can stay open (is 7-11 a “grocery”?) and is a liquor store “essential”? What about a hardware store (if you need replacement parts for a toilet?) and what about if your TV dies? TVs are important methods of communicating govt decisions.
Restaurants here are doing free delivery just to keep staff employed. Some places are converting to CSA (Community Supported Agriculture) where they deliver a box of fresh veggies for a monthly subscription. I might consider that. There aren’t many fruits and veggies that I don’t like. But I’m fussy. I want my apples and peaches ripe but my bananas green. Not choosing individual items would be a real change. But maybe if I organized a neighborhood group, we could exchange (from 10’ away) what we like and don’t.
There is good news. While I tend to view “American Exceptionalism” with some suspicion, it appears from today’s news that we do have it in some ways. Researchers have developed the first blood test that can accurately detect more than 50 types of cancer and identify in which tissue the cancer originated, often before there are any clinical signs or symptoms of the disease. And with an error rate of .07%!
Abbott (NYSE: ABT) announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the fastest available molecular point-of-care test for the detection of novel coronavirus (COVID-19), delivering positive results in as little as five minutes and negative results in 13 minutes. Previous tests took 3-4 days to show results.
3M has in two months doubled global production of N95 masks to about 100 million a month. Some manufacturing companies that produce ventilators are going into 24/7 production. Some other machine-oriented companies are changing machinery to produce more. Based on some ideas from China, shelter companies are producing “one week wonders” to construct safe temporary hospitals on sports fields, in convention centers, and city parks.
FEMA is going full on. The military is going full on. The US actually has the worst infection statistics in the world. It is hitting here hardest because we don’t allow the govt to declare total lockdowns (we just won't allow it “yet”). But we are also responding to it in medical and technology ways that will have benefits here and around the world. This virus is serious and it will reoccur for many months if not years. But by this time next year, we will probably have a vaccine and it will become “just another” seasonal virus that will kill some people (as routine influenza does now) and become part of the background fight with viruses we have fought for a century
Many people will die, but most of us will live. And fewer will die the next season. We are about 325 million people in the US. if 200,000 die from this it will be a tragedy to those who die, those who know the ones who die, and to society in general of the people who died who would have done great things in the future. That is .06% of us (did I add the % inaccurately?). It is tragic but not existential. We will get through this.
It's going to be hard, but beatable.
2 comments:
Yep - it's frightening. And the USA does seem to have been slower than many other countries to impose lockdowns and social distancing, which has led to higher numbers of people contracting the virus than might otherwise have occurred.
As you know, I work for the government Health Department and it's been fascinating to watch what is typically known as a slow-moving bureaucratic organisation get very serious about staging war against this pandemic and moving quickly. Not all the decisions being made are the best - but when they turn out not to be good, they're getting changed.
I still think that someone like you who has a history of NOT getting influenza etc, who eats well and who exercises regularly is more likely to avoid catching this virus than 'average' people. I'm in the same boat (well - at least as far as not been susceptible to viral infections goes! LOL). I haven't even bothered getting vaccinated against influenza in the past - but I will this year, as it is a condition of employment.
Does your concern about what's happening motivate you to try to give up (or cut down) on your smoking? Or have you already done that and not told us? It seems to be something that you could do that might make a meaningful difference to your symptoms if you get COVID19.
Can I encourage you to keep blogging? It makes a difference to me to read your blog and feel connected.
Megan
Sydney, Australia
I am getting scared, mainly for my elderly mom and my hubby who is 66. The soldier's home about 40 minutes away had 15 deaths already from this.Very scary times. All we can do is keep washing our hands and don't touch your face. I thought Italy had it worse than us?
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