Some Political Analysis

I pay a lot of attention to politics (I majored in it).  I pay a lot of attention to history (I minored in it).  I pay attention to game strategy (A lifelong hobby).  So I've been following the debates about possible US reactions to the nearly certain actions that President Assad of Syria has taken regarding chemical attacks on his own people.

My thoughts on this today do not involve the debate on whether the chemical attacks happened or what should be done about them.  I play some strategic games, and most involve figuring out what your opponent will do in response to your own actions.  I got to thinking about what Assad himself might say proactively to complicate his opponents plans and protect him against attacks (and I assure you I am not trying to provide him advice*)

President Assad:  "I have become aware that chemical attacks were launched against my people.  It was most assuredly done by either rebel elements engaged in illegitimate civil war or by rogue elements within the military.  I am investigating both possibilities and will report to the United Nations following that investigation.

I can only deplore the attacks and loss of life.  The guilty parties will be identified and punished.

But I am also aware that the United States and possibly other foreign powers are contemplating attacks on the legitimate government of Syria.  I warn them not to interfere. 

Syria does have chemical weapons, as almost all modern nations do.  In response to the foreign threats, they have been dispersed in ways that cannot be effectively tracked or targeted.  

If a single missile or airborne bomb from a foreign power  diminishes the ability of the legitimate Syrian government to suppress the rebellion, those hidden and dispersed chemical weapons will be used against all rebel encampments and strongholds.

If such attacks occur, the foreign powers will be responsible for the deaths of the rebels.

Finally, I remind the United States that it had its own civil war to maintain the governance of its own central government against a regional rebellion.  Foreign powers did not intervene, though 620,000 combatants and 50,000 civilians died in the suppression of the rebellious provinces. 

We will re-establish central governmental control over our nation.  We will actively resist foreign involvement by all means necessary."

Just some worrisome thoughts...

* If by some bizarrely unlikely possibility the Syrian government happens to read this, assume this is a planted blog by the CIA designed to provoke you into an disastrous course of action leading to your downfall.

Or not.  How would you ever know?