Well, I've been trying to play fewer games on line late at night, but I still do. And I had a great night of Scrabble. I started playing Hearts, Risk, and Backgammon online at Pogo.com many many months ago. I'm "competitive" at all of those, but each has problems. I can honestly say that "dice hate me", which makes Risk and Backgammon miserable sometimes. And I can't keep track of cards well enough to break past the mid rank of Hearts.
So I've been playing Scrabble for a few months, about one night per week. No dice, no cards. There is still the luck of the draw of the letters in Scrabble, but it seems random enough with so many letters that I'm not having a problem with that. Plus, you get to use the good letters the other player uses. And I have a good vocabulary from reading lots of books...
Still, I got killed at first. Scrabble uses a lot of specialty words. Short ones like ZA and QI, and 7 letter words are bonuses. It helped that I did Sunday crossword puzzles in ink for a couple decades. While no crossword puzzles use ZA or QI, few scrabble players come across "sten" and "nene", so it works out.
So I guess I finally learned most of the 2-letter scrabble words (after being beaten to death with them at first). And I was forced to start thinking of 7-letter words after being killed by the 50 point bonuses for using them (by my opponents).
Last night, I broke through the learning curve. I won 12 games in a row! Most were against real players, a couple were against the computer when no real players were available. It may seem odd to any of you who play online games, because computer players are generally considered easy to beat. They drive ME nuts! I can't beat the simplest chess program. The Risk bots kill me routinely. I can only beat real people!!!
I have no idea why.
It may be that when people think left/right, I think up/down.
In Scrabble, I find it easy to make multiple word combinations. Think of "ME", "LETS, and "EGG" in a square of words.
Anyway, I beat players with 100 times my score. I have 140,000 points. I asked one player who has 8 million points how she got them (after I crushed her in 3 games in a row). She said she had been playing for 12 years.
Um,OK...
I don't plan to play Scrabble for 12 years...
I think I might try Clue next... Achieving compentency at Scrabble has rendered the game boring. Time to move on...
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Planting Again!
Well, the best day of seed planting has occurred! I planted the heirloom tomatoes and the hybrid sweet bell peppers 2 days ago. If I could grow only 2 crops, those would be it.
Fortunately, I can grow a lot of other stuff.
For veggies, my list is nearly as long as the index list in a catalog. I've even grown celery.
Right now, I have cabbage, broccoli. pay choy, brussels sprouts. lettuces of various types, tomatoes, bell peppers, and leeks. Soon, I will have spinach, parsnips, beets. carrots, snow peas, flat italian pole beans, squash, melons, pumpkins, radishes etc.
I have some blue potatoes this year. I found them in the organic section of the grocery store, and they are sending out small shoots from the eyes. 4 blue potatoes will turn into 40 when planted in my containers. And with luck, I will get 2 harvests by planting a few eyes in July.
I have been planting a LOT of annual flowers this year. I spent 10 years on perennials and the short blooms are just not worth it. So I've going back to annuals that bloom all Late Spring, Summer and Fall. Salvias, Forget-Me-Nots, Carnations, Wave Petunias, Impatiens, Coleus, Cardinal Vines,
That needs a lot of indoors growing space. Fortunately, I adapted a large storage rack to a light stand last year. It is paying off now!
Each shelf has 4 fluorescent bulbs hanging below. Each shelf has 2 daylight bulbs and 2 grow-light bulbs. I really can't give the plants better lighting than that!
I keep the trays of seedlings close to the lights. But the shelves are fixed in place. So I do the adjustments by having wood stands of various heights.
Mesclun in a window box
Top view to show color.
Chinese cabbage.
Salvia, rudbecckia, and forget-me-nots...
Carnations and celery.
Rescued plants from last year. Stokesia, clumping blue fescue, and catnip.
Bell peppers. Lipstick is the best sweet bell pepper for me!
The heirloom tomatoes: Aunt Gerties Gold, Brandywine, Prudens Purple, Cherokee Purple, Tennessee Britches, and hybrid suncherry.
An example of the stands I built to raise the trays as close to the lights as possible. And to lower them as needed. Best results are 1" away from the lights. As they grow, they get put on lower stand.
Two stands before assembly. They are just glued.
Here is a stand glued and with a weight on top. The container is full of clean kitty litter.
After an hour, I can add a new glued stand. They aren't attached, just stacked.
This is the seedling soil I used this year. It wasn't perfect sterile soil, but it was "good enough" and it was on sale.
I've learned that the more expensive "seed starter soil" isn't required. I got almost 100% germination with this stuff. I DID have to pick out a few bits of bark and hand-crush some clumps of topsoil, but it was worth the cost.
BTW, when planting flats of 6 pack cels, I trowel lots of soil on top, scrape the excess away and tp down the cells with other 6 packs. Then I plant the seeds, cover them with soil using a flour sifter and tsmp them down again with a 6 pack.
That is all working great so far.
Fortunately, I can grow a lot of other stuff.
For veggies, my list is nearly as long as the index list in a catalog. I've even grown celery.
Right now, I have cabbage, broccoli. pay choy, brussels sprouts. lettuces of various types, tomatoes, bell peppers, and leeks. Soon, I will have spinach, parsnips, beets. carrots, snow peas, flat italian pole beans, squash, melons, pumpkins, radishes etc.
I have some blue potatoes this year. I found them in the organic section of the grocery store, and they are sending out small shoots from the eyes. 4 blue potatoes will turn into 40 when planted in my containers. And with luck, I will get 2 harvests by planting a few eyes in July.
I have been planting a LOT of annual flowers this year. I spent 10 years on perennials and the short blooms are just not worth it. So I've going back to annuals that bloom all Late Spring, Summer and Fall. Salvias, Forget-Me-Nots, Carnations, Wave Petunias, Impatiens, Coleus, Cardinal Vines,
That needs a lot of indoors growing space. Fortunately, I adapted a large storage rack to a light stand last year. It is paying off now!
Each shelf has 4 fluorescent bulbs hanging below. Each shelf has 2 daylight bulbs and 2 grow-light bulbs. I really can't give the plants better lighting than that!
I keep the trays of seedlings close to the lights. But the shelves are fixed in place. So I do the adjustments by having wood stands of various heights.
Mesclun in a window box
BTW, when planting flats of 6 pack cels, I trowel lots of soil on top, scrape the excess away and tp down the cells with other 6 packs. Then I plant the seeds, cover them with soil using a flour sifter and tsmp them down again with a 6 pack.
That is all working great so far.
Monday, February 6, 2012
Planting Seeds
I bought 4 large bags of potting soil last week. They were on sale, and I have storage space for the extra for next year. A single bag almost filled up a large trash can. The stuff isn't perfect. It is designed for large containers and established houseplants. There are bits bark and some clumps that have to be hand crushed into fine soil. But it works with a little effort. Really fine starting soil costs 3 times as much, so I am willing to put a little labor into improving it.
So, I pulled out my planting trays and the 6-cell-packs that fit them from last year. They are clean, of course. Each Fall, I fill up the basement laundry tub and add ammonia and soap to the water. I let the trays and 6-cells soak overnight and rinse them a few times. So today was my first major scheduled planting (10 weeks before last likely frost date).
The light stand is GREAT! Each shelf has a combination of "daylight" and "plant-grow" fluorescent bulbs, and I made supports of various heights so that I can easily keep the growing seedlings close to the lights. And I built the stand so that the shelves are all 2" lower than the shelf above (i.e. shelves are 10", 12", 14" and 16" apart).
Today (week minus 10 to last frost date here), I planted mostly annuals; 35 salvia, 6 wave petunias, 12 perennial ruddbeckia, 35 impatiens, 12 forget-me-nots, and 11 leeks.
Why the odd numbers on some? Because I want to water the trays from the bottom and that requires an open spot.. Six 6-packs fit in each tray. I cut one cell out to leave an easy watering spot. You don't want to water from above.
My schedule has nothing to plant in week -9. But week -8 is the BIG ONE! Tomatoes, peppers. 4 flowers, cole crops. I can hardly wait!!!
Pictures later when the seedlings start to grow...
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Planting Seeds
I planted flower and veggie seeds today. I love doing that. It signals the start of a new gardening season. And I got to start using the light stand I adapted from storage shelves last April.
I bought 4 large bags of potting soil last week. They were on sale, and I have storage space for the extra for next year. A single bag almost filled up a large trash can. The stuff isn't perfect. It is designed for large containers and established houseplants. There are bits bark and some clumps that have to be hand crushed into fine soil. But it works with a little effort. Really fine starting soil costs 3 times as much, so I am willing to put a little labor into improving it.
So, I pulled out my planting trays and the 6-cell-packs that fit them from last year. They are clean, of course. Each Fall, I fill up the basement laundry tub and add ammonia and soap to the water. I let the trays and 6-cells soak overnight and rinse them a few times. So today was my first major scheduled planting (10 weeks before last likely frost date).
The light stand is GREAT! Each shelf has a combination of "daylight" and "plant-grow" fluorescent bulbs, and I made supports of various heights so that I can easily keep the growing seedlings close to the lights. And I built the stand so that the shelves are all 2" lower than the shelf above (i.e. shelves are 10", 12", 14" and 16" apart).
Today (week minus 10 to last frost date here), I planted mostly annuals; 35 salvia, 6 wave petunias, 12 perennial ruddbeckia, 35 impatiens, 12 forget-me-nots, and 11 leeks.
Why the odd numbers on some? Because I want to water the trays from the bottom and that requires an open spot.. Six 6-packs fit in each tray. I cut one cell out to leave an easy watering spot. You don't want to water from above.
My schedule has nothing to plant in week -9. But week -8 is the BIG ONE! Tomatoes, peppers. 4 flowers, cole crops. I can hardly wait!!!
Pictures later when the seedlings start to grow...
I bought 4 large bags of potting soil last week. They were on sale, and I have storage space for the extra for next year. A single bag almost filled up a large trash can. The stuff isn't perfect. It is designed for large containers and established houseplants. There are bits bark and some clumps that have to be hand crushed into fine soil. But it works with a little effort. Really fine starting soil costs 3 times as much, so I am willing to put a little labor into improving it.
So, I pulled out my planting trays and the 6-cell-packs that fit them from last year. They are clean, of course. Each Fall, I fill up the basement laundry tub and add ammonia and soap to the water. I let the trays and 6-cells soak overnight and rinse them a few times. So today was my first major scheduled planting (10 weeks before last likely frost date).
The light stand is GREAT! Each shelf has a combination of "daylight" and "plant-grow" fluorescent bulbs, and I made supports of various heights so that I can easily keep the growing seedlings close to the lights. And I built the stand so that the shelves are all 2" lower than the shelf above (i.e. shelves are 10", 12", 14" and 16" apart).
Today (week minus 10 to last frost date here), I planted mostly annuals; 35 salvia, 6 wave petunias, 12 perennial ruddbeckia, 35 impatiens, 12 forget-me-nots, and 11 leeks.
Why the odd numbers on some? Because I want to water the trays from the bottom and that requires an open spot.. Six 6-packs fit in each tray. I cut one cell out to leave an easy watering spot. You don't want to water from above.
My schedule has nothing to plant in week -9. But week -8 is the BIG ONE! Tomatoes, peppers. 4 flowers, cole crops. I can hardly wait!!!
Pictures later when the seedlings start to grow...
Football
I don't care much for football, per se. I don't really think violent contact should be a part of skilled sports. OK, boxing, wrestling, you have to contact or there isn't the sport at all. If you like that the game is to beat the opponent unconscious, boxing is well-designed for that purpose. But I don't consider that "sport".
"Sports" started to go wrong for me when pro basketball changed from a skilled shooting game to a "flying elbows cage fight" gradually in the 70s and 80s. Football was no better; at least it STARTED with the idea of violence tackles and such. So I watched College basketball for a while, until the violence was taught there. I don't watch any of those these days. I expect to see a video clip of some Middle School basketball coach exhorting his players to "throw those elbows around" and"trip that guy" any day now.
I played high school soccer in the mid 60s. Like baseball, it isn't inherently a contact sport. Yes, injuries can happen. Mine was when an opponent and I reached the ball at the same time to kick it. I got there just first. HIS attempted kick landed in the top of my ankle. It separated the joint. My forward momentum made me land on that foot and popped the joint back into place. I couldn't run for a month. But at least it wasn't an intentional part of the game. And I've never had any problems with the ankle since.
Speaking of high school soccer, when I joined the team, it was the first year it had been offered. I played tennis, golf, and was on the long distance running team. Most of us had general athletic backgrounds. But the funny part was all the football players who got cut from the varsity team. They thought they would just take over. Not a single one made the soccer team.
We wore them out fast. They couldn't keep up with the constant play. No huddles, no bench time, no alternating between offense and defense, hardly any padding, no helmets, no lackeys to run out and squirt water in their mouths. After 2 weeks, they didn't get "cut" from the team, they just QUIT!
But I digress...
I watch football sometimes when my local team (The Washington Redskins) plays, when they are playing well. I'm no diehard fan. But when the local team is exciting, I may as well watch a good team. Unfortunately, it has been years since they were any good. But leads me to mention why I started writing this post. The Superbowl game this year was pretty good (and not overly violent). I checked in on it a few times and watched the last 5 minutes.
I decided I was rooting for the Giants to win the game.
Why? Because "we" beat them both games this year. LOLOLOL!
"Sports" started to go wrong for me when pro basketball changed from a skilled shooting game to a "flying elbows cage fight" gradually in the 70s and 80s. Football was no better; at least it STARTED with the idea of violence tackles and such. So I watched College basketball for a while, until the violence was taught there. I don't watch any of those these days. I expect to see a video clip of some Middle School basketball coach exhorting his players to "throw those elbows around" and"trip that guy" any day now.
I played high school soccer in the mid 60s. Like baseball, it isn't inherently a contact sport. Yes, injuries can happen. Mine was when an opponent and I reached the ball at the same time to kick it. I got there just first. HIS attempted kick landed in the top of my ankle. It separated the joint. My forward momentum made me land on that foot and popped the joint back into place. I couldn't run for a month. But at least it wasn't an intentional part of the game. And I've never had any problems with the ankle since.
Speaking of high school soccer, when I joined the team, it was the first year it had been offered. I played tennis, golf, and was on the long distance running team. Most of us had general athletic backgrounds. But the funny part was all the football players who got cut from the varsity team. They thought they would just take over. Not a single one made the soccer team.
We wore them out fast. They couldn't keep up with the constant play. No huddles, no bench time, no alternating between offense and defense, hardly any padding, no helmets, no lackeys to run out and squirt water in their mouths. After 2 weeks, they didn't get "cut" from the team, they just QUIT!
But I digress...
I watch football sometimes when my local team (The Washington Redskins) plays, when they are playing well. I'm no diehard fan. But when the local team is exciting, I may as well watch a good team. Unfortunately, it has been years since they were any good. But leads me to mention why I started writing this post. The Superbowl game this year was pretty good (and not overly violent). I checked in on it a few times and watched the last 5 minutes.
I decided I was rooting for the Giants to win the game.
Why? Because "we" beat them both games this year. LOLOLOL!
Monday, January 30, 2012
Strange Weather
The next couple of days are routinely the coldest days of the year, usually down to the teens at night (F).
Tomorrow is expected to reach 64F and Feb 1st 69F! That's not proof of global warming, of course, strange things can happen in any given year. And this is a strangely warm Winter by any accounting. Heck, 50 F would be unusual. But the 10 day forecast says it will not drop TO freezing here and that approaches the normal high.
Don't get me wrong on this, I agree that global warming is occurring, and by human actions of burning fossil fuels. What most people don't understand is that "global warming" really means that while the average global temperature is rising, weather can become more extreme in both directions. I can have a warmer than average Winter this year and a colder and snowier than average Winter next year (as I did 2 Winters ago). It means weather will fluctuate to extremes because a warmer planet means larger and greater weather changes.
On the other hand, I like to think (in humor) that I haven't had any serious snowfall here for 2 Winters because I bought a snowblower machine. ;)
Tomorrow is expected to reach 64F and Feb 1st 69F! That's not proof of global warming, of course, strange things can happen in any given year. And this is a strangely warm Winter by any accounting. Heck, 50 F would be unusual. But the 10 day forecast says it will not drop TO freezing here and that approaches the normal high.
Don't get me wrong on this, I agree that global warming is occurring, and by human actions of burning fossil fuels. What most people don't understand is that "global warming" really means that while the average global temperature is rising, weather can become more extreme in both directions. I can have a warmer than average Winter this year and a colder and snowier than average Winter next year (as I did 2 Winters ago). It means weather will fluctuate to extremes because a warmer planet means larger and greater weather changes.
On the other hand, I like to think (in humor) that I haven't had any serious snowfall here for 2 Winters because I bought a snowblower machine. ;)
Friday, January 13, 2012
Garden Season is here!
1. I ordered new seeds. Not many because most of my seeds are recent (and refrigerated). But some are only good for a year and some are 4 years old and needed to be replaced.
Also, I started lettuces in a windowsill planter (inside). I should get some mesclun harvest in a month. YAY!
2. Also, I turned on my seedling light stand yesterday. Mostly for some perennial seedlings from last year I am trying to recover, but also some early "greens".
3. The light stand works. Each shelf has two 4' fluorescent grow-lights and two "daylight" bulbs, I can't control the light outside, but at least I can give all the plants a good start inside.
Also, I started lettuces in a windowsill planter (inside). I should get some mesclun harvest in a month. YAY!
2. Also, I turned on my seedling light stand yesterday. Mostly for some perennial seedlings from last year I am trying to recover, but also some early "greens".
3. The light stand works. Each shelf has two 4' fluorescent grow-lights and two "daylight" bulbs, I can't control the light outside, but at least I can give all the plants a good start inside.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Changed ISPs
It was a little bit of a fight. I changed my cable and internet from Comcast to Verizon FiOS. And my telephone from regular telephone to FiOS telephone. Turned in my Comcast equipment today. Know what? They didn't even care.
This brings my total bill down to $140 from $210 per month. And gives me free long distance domestic calling for free. I think I'll call my Dad in Florida tomorrow.
I'm not thrilled with the Verizon remote control. Its fussy about aiming. The old Comcast one worked anywhere in the room. But the Verizon folks say it is a matter of pressing the buttons fast and not holding them down. We'll see about that, but I'll admit I am getting better about that..
If you are getting a blank on the emails you try to send me, the new one is:
cavebear2118 AT verizon DOT net...
If its about the cats, it is: marksmews2118 AT verizon DOT com. You know to replace the words with the symbols, right?
I've emailed everyone who has contacted me in the past 2 years with the new address, so I hope that includes everyone I should tell. I've updated my emails (with new fancier passwords) for all my existing commercial accounts. I've copied the old emails into new folders.
If there is anything else I should do, a suggestion would be greatly appreciated.
This brings my total bill down to $140 from $210 per month. And gives me free long distance domestic calling for free. I think I'll call my Dad in Florida tomorrow.
I'm not thrilled with the Verizon remote control. Its fussy about aiming. The old Comcast one worked anywhere in the room. But the Verizon folks say it is a matter of pressing the buttons fast and not holding them down. We'll see about that, but I'll admit I am getting better about that..
If you are getting a blank on the emails you try to send me, the new one is:
cavebear2118 AT verizon DOT net...
If its about the cats, it is: marksmews2118 AT verizon DOT com. You know to replace the words with the symbols, right?
I've emailed everyone who has contacted me in the past 2 years with the new address, so I hope that includes everyone I should tell. I've updated my emails (with new fancier passwords) for all my existing commercial accounts. I've copied the old emails into new folders.
If there is anything else I should do, a suggestion would be greatly appreciated.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
They're BAACCKKK!
My crazy neighbors didn't leave after all. There was the guy, his wife, his mother and some unrelated guy,
But it seems the bedroom furniture I saw being moved out was only the Mother's. She was the sane one...The IDIOTS are still there. In spite of the house being dark for about a week... Curiously, I haven't seen the wife carrying the baby since early December... Something is still odd. But it is January and they are still here,
Sad start to the New Year...
But it seems the bedroom furniture I saw being moved out was only the Mother's. She was the sane one...The IDIOTS are still there. In spite of the house being dark for about a week... Curiously, I haven't seen the wife carrying the baby since early December... Something is still odd. But it is January and they are still here,
Sad start to the New Year...
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Victory!
If you know the game of Risk, you know there are many nations to capture. I have a sad fate of always coming in 2nd of 2-5 players. And tonight I was down to 3 nations of (something like 70). I nudged my way into NA, and got control of it while the others fought elsewhere. Then I got SA!
If you know the game, you that means you get 2 continents with only 3 defense spots (Brazil. Alaska, and Greenland).
The 4 opponents worked together to kill me, but I survived. I eliminated 3 (1surrenderred) and I was left with 1 opponent who had most of Asia, Africa, and Europe. And they were very good high-ranked players.
It took 2 hours to win the game. I'm thrilled. Risk is a hard game to win online. The players are very skilled. I win maybe 1 of 20 games. I come in 2nd usually. So a real win was SO GREAT!
The point is that we all have barriers, and I beat one of mine tonight.
Cheers!
If you know the game, you that means you get 2 continents with only 3 defense spots (Brazil. Alaska, and Greenland).
The 4 opponents worked together to kill me, but I survived. I eliminated 3 (1surrenderred) and I was left with 1 opponent who had most of Asia, Africa, and Europe. And they were very good high-ranked players.
It took 2 hours to win the game. I'm thrilled. Risk is a hard game to win online. The players are very skilled. I win maybe 1 of 20 games. I come in 2nd usually. So a real win was SO GREAT!
The point is that we all have barriers, and I beat one of mine tonight.
Cheers!
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Politics
This was originally a political blog in 2008. I got my college degree in Political Science and it remains an interest of mine. I watch science, history, and nature shows most of the time, but when the political season comes around, I watch the political discussions and primary/caucus voting results all night.
The Iowa caucus voting is fascinating tonight. In 2008, the Republican winner was clear 30 minutes after the voting ended. Tonight, it is not clear after 2.5 hours and maybe not until tomorrow! And likely, it won't matter much. It appears that there will be a virtual 3-way tie among Romney, Santorum, and Paul.
They say "Iowa never chooses, but it winnows the field". Maybe not this time. The top 3 certainly go on when it is so close. But the others can too. Gingrich can because he has been running a "free media" campaign all along and South Carolina is a neighboring state. Bachman and Perry can fight in South Carolina, too. Huntsman has planted his flag in New Hampshire, where his views seem to match up well with New Hampshire voters.
After New Hampshire and South Carolina come Florida. That state is so demographically diverse that anything could happen. After Florida, primaries get spread out geographically and into other large states.
Here's my predictions:
1. Huntsman makes a better than predicted showing in New Hampshire, but Romney wins big. Huntsman withdraws.
2. South Carolina gives Santorum a win, but Romney and Gingrich are "close". Perry and Bachman withdraw.
3. Florida? Flip a coin! Maybe the old folks in Florida vote "for a best chance against Obama" or the rest of the populations goes for Santorum as "the most Republican". That's IF Santorum has any money to spend. IF Santorum does well in Florida (as in, gets 33% of the vote), Gingrich withdraws and endorses Santorum.
4. After that, it is between Romney and Santorum, with Ron Paul pulling a routine 10-15% of the vote on average in later primaries, with Romney getting 45-50% of the vote and Santorum getting 30% overall. It will vary state to state. Romney will do best on the coasts, Santorum will do best in the midwest and South.
5. Southern voters will not be comfortable that Romney is a Mormon.
6. Gingrich will push hard to be the Vice-Presidential nominee for either of them. He will not be chosen.
7. If Romney is the nominee, he will choose a western politician as Vice President. If Santorum is the nominee, he will choose someone like Chris Christie of New Jersey or Bob McDonnell of Virginia for the "more moderate" but still very Republican reputation.. Geo-demographics still matter to Republicans.
8. Barrack Obama will win the 2012 election. Aside from the fact that it is difficult to unseat an incumbent president, there are particular reasons. Mostly, all of the Republican candidates have VERY exploitable flaws. Romney flip-flops more than MOST politicians, Santorum is to the right of about 75% of voters, and while I do have some agreement with Libertarians on some ideas, most people don't feel comfortable with the total package, so Ron Paul is just a protest vote..
And there is the job numbers. The job growth has been positive for 22 months in a row. Not as high as one would like, but compared to the negative numbers in the Bush administration, its a good thing.
Its hard for the Republicans to attack Obama on wars, too, which is usually a strong advantage for them. Obama got Bin Laden, Ghaddafi, and top Al Queda leaders killed.
Its hard for the Republicans to attack President Obama on the financial economy too. The stock market is strong, It was up 5% this past year. The money lent to the US auto industry has been paid back in full (and at a profit by some accounts) and Ford, and General Motors are thriving US companies again!
The Obamacare legislation is harder to judge. Mostly because it hasn't gone fully into effect yet. But the earliest results seem to show it is both reducing costs and improving health services.
We will have to see what the eventual Replican nominee proposes to do as President in the general election campaign. He/She may have some great ideas they have been keeping under their hat during the Republican nomination process.
So, for those reasons, it is probably going to be very difficult for a Republican nominee to replace President Obama this year in the general election.
The next 10 months will be great!
The Iowa caucus voting is fascinating tonight. In 2008, the Republican winner was clear 30 minutes after the voting ended. Tonight, it is not clear after 2.5 hours and maybe not until tomorrow! And likely, it won't matter much. It appears that there will be a virtual 3-way tie among Romney, Santorum, and Paul.
They say "Iowa never chooses, but it winnows the field". Maybe not this time. The top 3 certainly go on when it is so close. But the others can too. Gingrich can because he has been running a "free media" campaign all along and South Carolina is a neighboring state. Bachman and Perry can fight in South Carolina, too. Huntsman has planted his flag in New Hampshire, where his views seem to match up well with New Hampshire voters.
After New Hampshire and South Carolina come Florida. That state is so demographically diverse that anything could happen. After Florida, primaries get spread out geographically and into other large states.
Here's my predictions:
1. Huntsman makes a better than predicted showing in New Hampshire, but Romney wins big. Huntsman withdraws.
2. South Carolina gives Santorum a win, but Romney and Gingrich are "close". Perry and Bachman withdraw.
3. Florida? Flip a coin! Maybe the old folks in Florida vote "for a best chance against Obama" or the rest of the populations goes for Santorum as "the most Republican". That's IF Santorum has any money to spend. IF Santorum does well in Florida (as in, gets 33% of the vote), Gingrich withdraws and endorses Santorum.
4. After that, it is between Romney and Santorum, with Ron Paul pulling a routine 10-15% of the vote on average in later primaries, with Romney getting 45-50% of the vote and Santorum getting 30% overall. It will vary state to state. Romney will do best on the coasts, Santorum will do best in the midwest and South.
5. Southern voters will not be comfortable that Romney is a Mormon.
6. Gingrich will push hard to be the Vice-Presidential nominee for either of them. He will not be chosen.
7. If Romney is the nominee, he will choose a western politician as Vice President. If Santorum is the nominee, he will choose someone like Chris Christie of New Jersey or Bob McDonnell of Virginia for the "more moderate" but still very Republican reputation.. Geo-demographics still matter to Republicans.
8. Barrack Obama will win the 2012 election. Aside from the fact that it is difficult to unseat an incumbent president, there are particular reasons. Mostly, all of the Republican candidates have VERY exploitable flaws. Romney flip-flops more than MOST politicians, Santorum is to the right of about 75% of voters, and while I do have some agreement with Libertarians on some ideas, most people don't feel comfortable with the total package, so Ron Paul is just a protest vote..
And there is the job numbers. The job growth has been positive for 22 months in a row. Not as high as one would like, but compared to the negative numbers in the Bush administration, its a good thing.
Its hard for the Republicans to attack Obama on wars, too, which is usually a strong advantage for them. Obama got Bin Laden, Ghaddafi, and top Al Queda leaders killed.
Its hard for the Republicans to attack President Obama on the financial economy too. The stock market is strong, It was up 5% this past year. The money lent to the US auto industry has been paid back in full (and at a profit by some accounts) and Ford, and General Motors are thriving US companies again!
The Obamacare legislation is harder to judge. Mostly because it hasn't gone fully into effect yet. But the earliest results seem to show it is both reducing costs and improving health services.
We will have to see what the eventual Replican nominee proposes to do as President in the general election campaign. He/She may have some great ideas they have been keeping under their hat during the Republican nomination process.
So, for those reasons, it is probably going to be very difficult for a Republican nominee to replace President Obama this year in the general election.
The next 10 months will be great!
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A Day Late
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