Politics

This was originally a political blog in 2008.  I got my college degree in Political Science and it remains an interest of mine.  I watch science, history, and nature shows most of the time, but when the political season comes around, I watch the political discussions and primary/caucus voting results all night.

The Iowa caucus voting is fascinating tonight.  In 2008, the Republican winner was clear 30 minutes after the voting ended. Tonight, it is not clear after 2.5 hours and maybe not until tomorrow!  And likely, it won't matter much.  It appears that there will be a virtual 3-way tie among Romney, Santorum, and Paul. 

They say "Iowa never chooses, but it winnows the field".  Maybe not this time.  The top 3 certainly go on when it is so close.  But the others can too.  Gingrich can because he has been running a "free media" campaign all along and South Carolina is a neighboring state.  Bachman and Perry can fight in South Carolina, too.  Huntsman has planted his flag in New Hampshire, where his views seem to match up well with New Hampshire voters.

After New Hampshire and South Carolina come Florida.  That state is so demographically diverse that anything could happen.  After Florida, primaries get spread out geographically and into other large states.

Here's my predictions:

1.  Huntsman makes a better than predicted showing in New Hampshire, but Romney wins big.  Huntsman withdraws.

2.  South Carolina gives Santorum a win, but Romney and Gingrich are "close".  Perry and Bachman withdraw.

3.  Florida?  Flip a coin!  Maybe the old folks in Florida vote "for a best chance against Obama" or the rest of the populations goes for Santorum as "the most Republican".  That's IF Santorum has any money to spend.  IF Santorum does well in Florida (as in, gets 33% of the vote), Gingrich withdraws and endorses Santorum.

4.  After that, it is between Romney and Santorum, with Ron Paul pulling a routine 10-15% of the vote on average in later primaries, with Romney getting 45-50% of the vote and Santorum getting 30% overall.  It will vary state to state.  Romney will do best on the coasts, Santorum will do best in the midwest and South.

5.  Southern voters will not be comfortable that Romney is a Mormon.

6.  Gingrich will push hard to be the Vice-Presidential nominee for either of them.  He will not be chosen.

7.  If Romney is the nominee, he will choose a western politician as Vice President.  If Santorum is the nominee, he will choose someone like Chris Christie of New Jersey or Bob McDonnell of Virginia for the "more moderate" but still very Republican reputation..  Geo-demographics still matter to Republicans.

8.  Barrack Obama will win the 2012 election.  Aside from the fact that it is difficult to unseat an incumbent president, there are particular reasons.  Mostly, all of the Republican candidates have VERY exploitable flaws. Romney flip-flops more than MOST politicians, Santorum is to the right of about 75% of voters,  and while I do have some agreement with Libertarians on some ideas, most people don't feel comfortable with the total package, so Ron Paul is just a protest vote.. 

And there is the job numbers.  The job growth has been positive for 22 months in a row.  Not as high as one would like, but compared to the negative numbers in the Bush administration, its a good thing. 

Its hard for the Republicans to attack Obama on wars, too, which is usually a strong advantage for them.  Obama got Bin Laden, Ghaddafi, and top Al Queda leaders killed.

Its hard for the Republicans to attack President Obama on the financial economy too.  The stock market is strong,  It was up 5% this past year.  The money lent to the US auto industry has been paid back in full  (and at a profit by some accounts) and Ford, and General Motors are thriving US companies again! 

The Obamacare legislation is harder to judge.  Mostly because it hasn't gone fully into effect yet. But the earliest results seem to show it is both reducing costs and improving health services.

We will have to see what the eventual Replican nominee proposes to do as President in the general election campaign.   He/She may have some great ideas they have been keeping under their hat during the Republican nomination process. 


So, for those reasons, it is probably going to be very difficult for a Republican nominee to replace President Obama this year in the general election.

The next 10 months will be great!