Record Snowfall For Washington DC

Well, in SOME areas around here.  We came close in my town but DIDN'T break the record.  By only 2 inches.  I think (since the record was almost a century ago, that counts as SERIOUS SNOWFALL).

It started here at precisely 1 pm Friday (I was looking at the window, and one minute there were no snowflakes and then there were).  Sort of like looking at a digital clock as it changes minutes...

So it started.  At the time, I doubted it would be all the snow predicted.  Forecasters prefer to suggest the top range.  That way, people aren't so annoyed when it is less.  But if it is MORE snow, they get upset.  A forecaster explained that in a moment of honesty...

But the forecast nailed it to the inch in most places around here.  The Friday morning snowfall maps had a dividing line right through my town.  18" - 24" NW of me and 12-18" SE, so that put me on the 18" line.  We got 18"!

OK, before I forget, here are the starting pictures...

A pre-flurry not connected with the real storm left a trace of snow.   But since it remained, it meant that everything was cold enough for any new snow to stick. 

The yardstick in place so I could measure the snowfall...

 The accumulation by dark Friday...

It was serious by morning Saturday...

About 12" deep, but drifting from high winds (up to 45 MPH in my area, higher in others).

The snow that accumulated nearly a foot softly on the deck rails during Friday were whipped clean by the winds in the night.

I had temporarily installed an old sunflower seed birdfeeder Friday morning.  I forgot that the lower 3' of the pole were previously in the ground, so it was a bit higher than I expected.  And note that the open tray of the feeder is set opposite from the general wind direction.  Well, first, I didn't want the seeds to be blown out and second, I thought it would give the birds some protection from the forecast high winds.

I even kept the 8' stepladder on the deck so I could use it to refill the feeder.  It was barely high enough to reach the top of the feeder, but "barely high enough" is sufficient. 

I was still thinking it was going to be a lot of snow, but in a normal way.  Level and even after the wind spread it around after it stopped.

OOPS!!!  More tomorrow about how bad things got (and could have been worse).

Weird Political Year

I majored in Government and Politics at U of MD, so I do really get into the details of campaigns, polling, and debates.  Not directly involved in any though.  Just interested.  So I think of what might happen.

And I supported McGovern in 1972 and he got wiped in that election, so maybe what do I know? LOL!  Good thing I didn't make a career of it.  But there ARE a few things about it that I am good at.  Well, exremists usually DO lose big...

1.  Polling questions - You can write polling questions to get about any response you want.  Good pollsters work very hard to stay neutral, bad ones write the questions to get the replies they desire.

Consider 2 questions.  One poll asks "Of the 3 leading candidates for Party X, which do you prefer"?  The other asks "Of the 3 leading candidates, which would you go vote for"?  Those seem about the same, but they aren't.  One asks preferences and the other asks about the action of voting.  Many people have preferences, but only half the people actually vote.

So pollsters can affect the results by asking questions various ways and by deciding who they poll.

An example.  If you ask old people in assisted-living houses who they prefer, you get one result.  If you ask college students, you get another.  If you ask people who are at home in houses on workdays, you get yet a different result.  Same for calling people.  Landline telephone owners have different views than smart phone owners.  Even landline phone owners can be different.  Those who are awake at 8 am are different from those who are awake at midnight.

Even worse is when pollsters ask "leading questions".  Like "Candidate X wants to weaken our military forces.  Do you think that is good or bad"?

Well, of course no one wants that.  A more neutral question would be "Should tax money be applied more to military spending or to economic development"?  Even better is a list of things money should be spend on and the pollee chooses.

2.  Voting experience - Polling people who routinely vote is different from polling people who normally don't.  Both can have strong preferences, but if you don't vote, your preference doesn't matter.  And oddly enough, excited groups of supporters who routinely haven't voted in the past will usually not vote when it matters.  They just have "others things to do that day".  Or they feel uncomfortable doing something new to them (voting).

3.  Voting accessibility - It matters how easy it is to vote.  I know that from personal experience.  When I first moved here, the voting line in the local school was 4 hours long and I saw people just giving up and leaving.  They had other things they needed to do.  Now, my voting place has no line and I am in and out in 10 minutes.  Same number of voters, but more places.  That affects voting.  When voting is made harder in some places, it affects who can afford the time.

4.  Ease of voting - When I vote, no one questions my identity.  I could prove who I am easily enough.  But not everyone can.  Even legitimate voters in some places get challenged (unlike me - older white male).  When I was single and in college, I had to drive 60 miles home to vote.  But I could and did.  So I skipped a half day of classes.  But what if you had to take 3 buses for an hour and walk a mile when you had kids to care for or a job that demanded you work all the voting hours?  That is the deliberate arrangement in some places.

I could go on, but I hope you see my point.  Polls have errors, supporters don't show up, voters have easier or harder times voting.  No one knows the results until they are counted.

And pollsters have been famously wrong.  Dewey Defeats Truman is most famous, but there are others.  We young Baby-Boomers were assured that McGovern would beat Nixon in 1972, but we didn't go and vote like the pollsters thought we would (I did).  In 2008, The consensus of 7 polls taken just before the NH primary had Obama winning by 8.2 percent in the voting. Instead, Clinton beat Obama by a 39 to 36 percent margin. So the polls were off by a staggering 11 percent.  And THOSE were a simple one-on-one poll taken among "likely voters"!  And the list goes on, and on, and on...

You just never know about polls.   As Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over til it's over"...

Mark

Cat Tree Repair

A few months ago, the tallest platform on one of the 2 cat trees came loose.  Its the one that Ayla and Marley use to jump up to the top of the nearby bookcases, so there is sideways pressure going up and down.  I discovered it was attached with bolts through plastic disks in the post and the plastic had broken at both the top and bottom.  I thought about attaching blocks of wood in the post, but that seemed like a weak repair.  So I searched for a replacement post.

The manufacturer of the brand didn't seem to sell replacements, but I found one at another brand's site.  Assuming they were all the same, I ordered one.  It arrived.  With a block of wood in the top and bottom of the post, LOL!  And the wood stuck down out of the post slightly,  which meant it would wobble a bit no matter how tight.  But it also had a long skinny bolt sticking DOWN several inches and a smaller one sticking UP an inch.  Well, that was no good, either bolt would injure the cats.

So I complained to the seller and demanded a free return label.  They just credited my card instead.  Fine.  I just ignored the whole problem for a while.

A few days ago, I got back at it.  As awkward as it was to do, I got both bolts out and drilled the holes larger to fit the original bolts (which were flush to the surfaces and capped with protective plastic caps).  Then I clamped the post in a bench vise and planed the wood blocks flush with the surface.

The original bolts had little hex-shaped indents for tightening with an allen wrench, which holds well but can be difficult to turn.  But I got that done eventually, and the platform was re-installed nice and tight!  Hurray!

Ender's Game

In a sci-fi world of the future, some evolved ant-like Beings left their homeworld to establish a colony on a suitable planet in another solar system.  That world was Earth and it was occupied.  After a war, they retreated.

The Earthlings felt threatened and decided to fight the invaders (the only intelligent beings they had ever met).  To that end, they trained and tested all sorts of young humans, seeking the best natural war-generals.  To make a long story short, they eventually found a youth with unusual strategic and tactical skills.

His name was Ender.  He succeeded at the military games in the academy by unusual tactics.  Slowly he learned strategic skills.  But he had odd dreams of the Enemy.

After successes at the academy, he was brought to the advanced training center where he was challenged in harder ways, but always succeeding. 

I know the story from the book, but I saw it as a movie a few nights ago.  Movies seldom present the nuances of a book, but this one did at least a B grade.

In the book, Ender advanced slowly through all the training sessions successfully until the end.  The Enemy was not much presented or understood.  In the movie, the Enemy was often shown and even explained.

In both, Ender is presented with increasingly more complex battles until the Government is convinced he can be a Battle-General.

In the book and in the movie, there are points where the reader/viewer can see the truth of the situation.  But there is a difference.  In the book, the moment of truth sneaks up very gradually.  In the movie, it is pretty obvious. 

I remember reading the book.  There is one spot where you suddenly, horrifyingly, realize that Ender (without his knowledge, thinking he is engaged in just another training simulation) destroys the Enemy completely and utterly.  He destroys an alien race not knowing that his "battle" is real.  And you, the reader, know before he does.

Few stories raise the hairs on my arms and neck; that one did.  The sudden understanding that the simulation was reality was a shock.  I have only felt that way with one story before (The Star).

They did a reasonable job of it in the movie, but of course nuance is not a movie trait.  Ender's discovery that he had destroyed the Enemy in what he thought was a training session was presented a bit too suddenly.  The book gave gradual hints; the movie just thrust the fact on you.

But most movies made from books are worse.  If the book was an A+, the movie was an A-.  Compared to other book-to-movie attempts, that's not bad.  Consider either version of Dune, or Howard The Duck, Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy, Alice In Wonderland, and How The Grinch Stole Christmas movies.

I'd watch Ender's Game again.

And BTW, I met Orson Scott Card once before he was famous.  He was a speaker at a conference.  He had a routine called "The Speaker On The Monitor" (I think) and it was hilarious.  It was back in the days of computer greenscreens and was a rif on biblical chapters (no disrespect meant - simply humor).  Like he would refer to the god of the computer and make the sign of the monitor (fingers shaping a square).  I actually shook his hand afterwards.   

I also met Issac Asimov once at a college presentation, but he seemed dead drunk.  Not like I could be sure, being a bit high myself at the time.  But he was beet red-faced and slurred as he spoke, and he made no sense at all.  Meeting famous people sometimes isn't all that good.

So read the book 'Ender's Game' and get the real story.

Weather

I have to admit that I appreciate the delayed Winter here.  On the other hand, the bad forecasts are driving me crazy.

I look at The Weather Channel website FOR MY ZIPCODE (which should be pretty specific) and it says 0% chance of precipitation for 5 days.  And so I walk outside to plant more Spring Bulbs (daffodils now) and heavy mist is falling.  Which means the soil is muddy.  ARGHH!

Well, at least I have gotten 90% of the tulips and hyacinths planted in vole/squirrel proof wire cages.  There are a few leftovers of each and I can plant them in pots to be enclosed in the garden area with hopes of getting blooms and replanting them next Spring.

I still have daffodils to plant, but they don't need cages (being toxic to the varmints).  I can plant THOSE using my 12" drill auger.  As soon as the rain stops...

And with just drilling holes and dropping bulbs in, the daffs go in fast.  Which is why I left them for last.  At least I'm done with the digging of 14'X16" holes 12" deep!

I always try to do too much.  LOL!  Well, better than trying to do too little.

I have a lot of crocus bulbs, but those are going in some large shallow plastic bins to grow in Spring and then be replanted in May along a border.

It didn't seem like THIS much work when I ordered all the bulbs last Fall!  I'm bad at estimating the work my projects require.  But it will be worth it in Spring and for many Springs to come.   I don't think I will be planting any more Spring bulbs for many years to come.

Tomorrow is supposed to rain all day.  Good.  I have some serious inside cleaning to do!

Welcome To The Team, 2016!

Well, 2016, you have a big job ahead of you.  I don't mind saying that your predecessor, 2015, did a pretty poor job.  There were many reasons we finally had to let him go. 

Please try not to make the same mistakes.  Your contract is for a full year (you drive a hard bargain) and there won't be much we can do if you screw up so we are stuck with you.

On the other hand, you are stuck with US too.  So it's a mutual "let's try to get along" deal.  Your year matters to US in that we have to live through it, but your legacy depends on it as well.  Surely, you do not want to go down in history as "one of the bad years".  We expect great efforts from you.

Pursuant to that, let us point out some salient terms of our contract.  To wit:

Paragraph 3, subsection B, clause 12 - "Humans take no responsibility for their actions in any way, shape, form, and all general synonyms".

And clause 13 of the above - "2016 is entirely, totally, completely, and all general synonyms responsible for all bad events specified (but not limited to) clause 13, list 2:

List 2:  War, Illness, Asteroids, Alien Invasion, Politics, Religious Extremism, Starvation and Hunger, Climate Change, Wildlife Extinction, Volcanic Activity, and Pollution".  Plus items listed in Secret Addendums 2 and 3".

We note your objection that "Politics" were to be specifically excluded, but we snuck it back in and you signed the contract by appearing on January 1, 2016 midnight, so HA-HA-HA on YOU!

We remind you that, in accordance with standard practice (i.e., software licensing agreements), all disputes will be resolved in our favor by own personally-chosen hired arbitrators, so you don't have a snowball's chance in a furnace of winning any argument.

So we wish you a successful year with us, 2016!  Good luck.

You'll NEED it!

Humanity

The HD TV

It went full circle tonight.  Years ago, when I first shopped for an HD TV, one on the showroom HD TVs showed a dinosaur stampede among humans.  I was stunned both by the action and by the realism!  I asked "What is THAT and the salesman said it was the new King Kong movie.

I bought a 60" plasma tv that day, but not so I could watch the movie.  I prefer nature/science/biology DVDs.  But every time the newer King Kong movie was on, I checked it for the dinosaur stampede.  Never caught it...  Too early, too late, whatever.

But I caught it tonight.  Saw the listing and just as I turned it on, the dinosaur stampede started.  Watched that whole part.  Finally!!!  And then I turned it off.  The movie itself is both too depressing and too weirdly violent.  Movies where too many people are just obliterated are Not My Thing...

More Bulb Planting Fun

The Project That Never Ends continues...  WHAT was I thinking when I ordered 350 tulips/hyacinths/daffodils to plant?  Well, I suppose because I had new space and I decided in September to landscape rather than just plant grass.  And its not the bulbs, its the making of and the digging for all the wire cages to protect them from the Evil Squirrels and Nasty Voles.

Just planted in the ground, the squirrels dig them up from above and the voles eat them from below.  I'm hoping the wire cages keep them safe and blooming for years.  But I never expected it would be so much work!

I've bored you with the process before, so I won't do that again.  But even to do a few cages takes time.  It's the weather...

In one sense, I have been very lucky with the weather.  The ground is usually frozen hard by mid November and it has stayed oddly warm this year.  So I have had more time to plant them.  On the other hand, it has rained some  almost every day for 6 weeks.  Not that we are flooded; the rain is a soft drizzle.  But that's enough to make the soil slippery and muddy.  And you don't want to dig in wet soil because it packs down.  And at the end of a day working in wet soil, I would look like The Swamp Thing!

So I have a large 36'x30' sheet of plastic I cover the area with every day.  OK, the bottom 4' are not covered, but that section was the first I planted so I don't have to step in it.

So every day when it is not raining, I take all the stones off some of the edges of the plastic, peel it back for where I want to plant, and get 3 more bulb cages (holding 9 bulbs each) set in.  3 cages take about 90 minutes and after that I'm tired.  Well, each hole has to be 14"x16" and 12" deep.  And the dug up soil has to go somewhere other than on top of the previous plantings (I have styrofoam plates marking the planted spots and I can't cover THEM).

So putting the dug-up soil gets trickier the more cages I plant.  I have all the tulips planted (20 cages) and I am on the hyacinths at the outer edge on one side.  That side (of the 30' edged circle) is the easier to dig in (sandier soil vs clayier soil), so I favor that area for digging.

The other side of the circle will be for daffodils, more about those when I plant them, but they are FAR easier to plant...

So I wanted to start on the hyacinths yesserday.  The forecast looked good.  The Weather Channel website for my town said no rain until 6 pm.  Hurray!  I got started at 2:30.  It took 15 minutes to get the ools and bulbs outside and peel the plastic sheeting off.  So I started to dig the first hole.

And then it started to rain!  Misty at first but then more steadily...  Dammit!  I waited a few minutes as the rain got heavier.  But I gave up and re-covered the planting site with the plastic and put all the tools away. 

Fortunately, I also needed to go grocery-shopping, so off I went with rain falling on the windshield.  For 2 minutes...

Then it stopped completely.  For the rest of daylight.  ARGHHH!

Well, at least I got the grocery-shopping done...

What Are My Politics?

I've never figured that out really.  I usually end up voting for Democrats, but that's not much about party.  I just like ideas that are fact-based and seem like they will work.  Too often, we assign our political views to party ideology.

For example, I think (Conservative) it is worthwhile to protect our borders.  I don't want mass immigrations of one group of people coming in.  But I do want immigration (Liberal).  From all around the world.  Equally.  That is neither Republican nor Democrat; Conservative or Liberal.

We need people to come and help harvest the crops from our farms.  It is seasonal work.  So let'slet it be "guest-worker" status that helps all of us.  They get wages to help their families back home, we get the massive crops to fill our stores and to export to other countries not so farmland-rich.  It helps all.

But why should we need to allow foreign workers to harvest our crops?  That bothers me when we have unemployed citizens.   Why can't they do the same work (Conservative)?

Well, in one sense, they don't have the experience to do it.  If you are a city person, you don't have the experience.  You can't be expected to do what you are not experienced to do (Liberal).  But if you need a job, you should be able to learn basic work skills (Conservative).  But how do you get the skills to harvest farmcrops if the only vegetable you ever see is in a school lunch (Liberal).

See how confusing it can get?

We need The New Deal brought back again.  You can also call it "Workfare"(Conservative).  Why not create new Government Programs to employ the unemployed at working on infrastructure and farms.  Call it on-the-job training where they learn employable skills (Liberal).

We need a lot of building work done here.  We have unemployed people on welfare.  Why not combine the two (Conservative).  Yeah, and give them a livable wage (Liberal). 

Give a family a house for free and they will trash it (Conservative), but help them to afford to buy one and they will cherish it (Liberal).

Get the idea? 

My view is that there are too many superrich people and too many seriously poor ones.  This country had it's best days when there was a large middle class.  A large middle class means both stability and class mobilty.

The possibilty of class mobility is probably the best thing we ever had/have.  The local rich guy's kids should be ABLE to fail.  The poorest kids should be ABLE to succeed.  And Middle class kids Should go in either direction as their skills allow.

The current rules are set up legally and financially to prevent that (Liberal).  And the bias toward massive inherited wealth is getting stronger (Conservative).

I don't want specifically Democrat or Republican, Conservative or Liberal.  I want the recreation of a strong majority Middle Class through some Centrist bi-partisan politics.  Because a majority Middle Class is what makes a democracy work best.

Tulip Planting Concerns

I have realized that all my tulip bulb planting efforts MIGHT be a waste of time.  Spring-Flowering bulbs like tulips, hyacinths, and daffodils (et al) need "chill time".  In other words, they have to get cold enough for long enough to flower properly. 

Tulips require temperatures below 50F to begin to chill.  The colder they are, the less time they need.   This has been an unusually warm December here.  We have set a couple of record high temps, but that wouldn't be too much of a problem if it also got cold sometimes.

We have only had 3 nights below 32F here this month and are not forecast to have another until JANUARY.  This is almost beyond bizarre!  The average frist hard freeze here is usually in late October and the ground usually freezes a foot down for the Winter by early December.

I sure appreciate the warmish weather for the ability to keep working outside, but what is likely to happen next Spring is that I will have tulip plants, but no flowers.  After all this work, that would be a hard blow.  At least (as I read on most sites), that won't harm the plants permanently, just prevent blooms next year.

At minimum, tulips need 8-10 weeks of freezing ground.  And since that isn't likely to happen until early January, I am going to need a late Winter keeping the ground really cold into mid-March.  And THAT isn't the usual pattern here.

And I still have 8 cages of tulips and 8 cages of hyacinths to plant!  And 150 daffodils, but they don't need cages (being toxic to voles and squirrels) so I can just use my drill auger to plant them individually.  And from past experience, I know I CAN plant 150 daffodils that way in 2 days easily.

I think I will take the hyacinths and plant them in some large plastic tubs I have.  The voles can't get into the tubs and I'll cover the tops with wire mesh to keep the squirrels out.  I can harvest the bulbs in May to plant them properly

These are probably the last tulips and hyacinths I will plant.  The Winters are getting too short for them to survive.  I shouldn't have planted these, but I got all excited when I had an excavator remove the 6' high ridge in the backyard and thought of things I could plant there instead of grass to mow.  I love to see almost anything more than grass...

And I still have 200 crocus bulbs to plant!  I kind of got in over my head this year.  But better to try to much and stay busy, then to try too little and look back with regret at wasted time now, next year.

But I also have to say...  I've lived in this spot for 30 years.  I've seen the changes in the seasons as only a gardener/landscaper can.  The ground used to be frozen solid by the start of December.  Now it happens at the start of January (this isn't the first year of warmish weather at Solstice around here).

Anyone who thinks the climate isn't generally warming isn't a gardener! 

Winter Solstice

I celebrate this day!  No I'm not a modern day Druid or anything, but this day means something to me.  I am just very practical about the day.  It is the shortest day of the year.  Tommorrow, the days will start getting longer.

The longer days will lead to gardening season.

The gardening season leads to fresh tomatoes, fresh bicolor corn, small seedless cucumbers, flat italian beans,  celery leaves and spicy greens to add to salads, fresh ripe melons, zucchini, and all the minor crops.

It leads to spring bulbs that I love walking among and admiring in my backyard.

It leads to some time standing out on the deck looking at the backyard and thinking what I will do to reclaim the far parts from brambles that have gotten a bit out-of-control the past 2 years since I had a few trees removed.

It leads to the cats enjoying the outside again and running around all crazy for the shear joy of running.

It leads to thoughts of projects that will be harder than I expect but worth it after all the effort.

AND (many of you will have to just tolerate me on this), it IS the ORIGINAL "Reason for the Season".  I don't say hat lightly.  Just that most ancient religious beliefs have oriented around the Winter Solstice.  It makes sense that "Hope Springs" when the days start to get longer and promise a new beginning.   

May There Be Peace on Earth, and Good Will to All.  :)

Mark